Milan’s Real Estate Market in 2025
Market Signals Point to a Cooling Trend in Italy’s Financial Capital
The once-unstoppable Milan real estate market is showing clear signs of deceleration, with data suggesting that both property prices and rental rates are plateauing—and potentially poised for a downturn. This shift marks a significant turning point for one of Europe’s most dynamic property markets.
Transaction volumes tell a compelling story. In the first three quarters of 2024, property sales contracts plunged 8.8% compared to 2023, significantly underperforming the national average decline of 1.1%. This sharp contraction occurred despite increased mortgage-based purchases, indicating a retreat of investment capital from the market.
The pricing landscape reveals equally interesting patterns. According to data from immobiliare.it, Milan’s average property prices increased by a modest 1.4% in 2024, reaching €5,420 per square meter—a figure that would secure premium real estate in most other Italian cities. However, this headline number masks significant neighborhood variations:
The clear winner is Forlanini, posting a remarkable 15.4% appreciation, largely attributed to the new M4 metro line development. Certosa and Baggio-Bisceglie-Olmi follow with gains of 9.5% and 8.3% respectively, though these increases largely reflect new development projects like Cascina Merlata and SeiMilano.
In contrast, the historically popular Navigli district saw a slight decline (-0.1%), while Indipendenza and Bande Nere remained flat—potentially signaling a shift in market dynamics.
The rental market presents an even more striking picture, with annual growth slowing to just 0.7%, and showing signs of decline in the latter half of 2024. Notably, 11 out of Milan’s 32 districts registered decreasing rental rates, with the Repubblica-Centrale area experiencing the steepest decline at -3%.
Looking Ahead: Market Forces and Policy Impact
The outlook for 2025 presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The anticipated decrease in mortgage rates could provide some market support, particularly benefiting variable-rate loans. By late 2024, the same €1,000 monthly payment could finance 43.7 square meters compared to 40 square meters in 2023—a 9% increase in purchasing power.
However, the market faces a critical juncture with the pending “Salva Milano” legislation and construction sector dynamics. The current supply shortage of new developments is undeniable, and the administrative gridlock in the Urban Planning Sector is hampering projects that comply with existing regulations. The potential revival of new development projects, particularly outside the city’s prime central zones, could exert downward pressure on existing property prices—a significant factor as the market grapples with both price stagnation and looming EU energy performance directives.
As Milan confronts these challenges, the fundamental question of affordability remains paramount. The growing disconnect between income levels and housing costs continues to reshape the city’s social fabric, potentially threatening its position as Italy’s economic powerhouse. The coming months will reveal whether these market signals represent a temporary adjustment or a more fundamental shift in Milan’s real estate landscape.
Source: Corriere della Sera Milan