Amid global uncertainties and cautious anticipation at the National Retail Federation’s Big Show, U.S. shoppers continue to defy predictions, propelling retail sales and inspiring confidence among major global retailers. The recent Commerce Department report revealed a higher-than-expected rise in December sales, fueled by online purchases and motor vehicle transactions. Senior executives, gathered at the annual expo, are shifting focus from a decade of retrenchment to discuss expanding store portfolios. Despite concerns about the economy and pandemic aftermath, retail real estate fundamentals are predicted to remain robust in 2024.
CBRE forecasts a decrease in the retail availability rate and a rise in asking rent growth, signaling a positive outlook for the industry. While low-income households face financial challenges, economists anticipate sustained consumer spending, provided the labor market remains stable. Traditional mall-based retailers are adapting by closing underperforming stores and turning to smaller, open-air suburban centers for expansion. CBRE predicts that neighborhood and strip centers will maintain occupancy, while mall and lifestyle centers may experience a slight increase in vacancy rates. Industry veteran Stephen Sadove predicts a “reversion to the mean” in 2024, envisioning a post-pandemic world with e-commerce returning to pre-COVID growth patterns.
Despite the rise of AI and other technologies, Sadove remains optimistic about physical stores, citing a net increase in store openings in 2023. The NRF Big Show highlighted the retail industry’s fascination with artificial intelligence, with AI solutions permeating discussions and expo displays. Google Cloud’s Amy Eschliman sees generative AI as a transformational force akin to the internet and mobile phones, capable of revolutionizing customer and associate experiences. Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell emphasizes the positive impact of AI on pricing science and inventory allocation, stressing the need for retailers to embrace innovation actively. Ulta Beauty CEO Dave Kimbell sees AI as a tool to complement human connections, enhancing guest services and personalization without sacrificing the essential human touch in retail.
Source: Bisnow