Anticipated exodus following socialist candidate’s expected victory remains largely unconfirmed by market data

As New York’s mayoral election approaches, Miami luxury real estate developer Isaac Toledano quipped that many in Florida might soon recognize Mamdani “as the best real estate salesman of the year.”

Toledano represents a cohort of South Florida developers positioning themselves to benefit from what they predict will be a wave of affluent New Yorkers relocating if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani secures the mayor’s office this week.

Anxiety about Mamdani driving away New York’s wealthy has intensified since the 34-year-old candidate’s surprising Democratic primary victory in June. Prominent critics like billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who has funded opposition efforts against Mamdani’s campaign, have forecasted a corporate and individual migration to Florida.

Multiple Miami luxury property agents told the Financial Times they’re witnessing increased interest from prospective New York buyers—what they’ve dubbed the “Mamdani effect.”

However, hard data tells a different story.

According to realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel, searches originating from Manhattan for South Florida properties dropped 5 percent year-over-year during the third quarter. Similarly, Zillow reported that Miami property page views from New York users fell from 7.5 percent last September to 7.3 percent this year.

Juan Arias, National Director of US Industrial Analytics at real estate data firm Costar, expects any actual increase in New York-to-Miami relocations “will be marginal.”

Yet Toledano, whose BH Group has developed high-end properties including Ritz-Carlton residences in West Palm Beach, claims his firm closed over $100 million in contracts with New Yorkers during the past four months—roughly twice last year’s comparable period. Still, most developers acknowledge it remains premature to definitively measure wealthy New Yorkers’ Miami interest ahead of potential Mamdani administration.

South Florida real estate professionals report that New York prospects express concerns about declining safety, hostile business conditions, and rising taxes under Mamdani. The progressive candidate proposes increasing New York’s corporate tax from 7.25 to 11.5 percent while raising levies on millionaires.

Developers contrast this with Florida’s advantages: a 5.5 percent corporate tax rate, zero personal income tax, and Miami’s tropical climate.

Edgardo Defortuna, CEO of Fortune Group, described recently selling a North Miami Beach luxury unit to a New Yorker seeking a Florida “safety place” should Mamdani win.

Douglas Elliman has intensified Miami marketing toward New York buyers, according to senior vice president of new developments Sharon Navotny.

Some brokers suggest this anticipated New York migration is influencing other markets. Defortuna noted that at a recent Mexico City real estate expo, buyers considered accelerating purchases before the expected New Yorker influx. Navotny mentioned a client contemplating ending a four-month property search for similar reasons.

Agents point to billionaire Ken Griffin relocating hedge fund Citadel from Chicago to Miami in 2022, and activist investor Carl Icahn’s New York-to-South Florida move, as evidence of Wall Street’s growing Miami interest.

Yet Costar’s Arias offers an alternative explanation for Miami brokers’ enthusiasm about New York wealth flowing toward beachfront condominiums with private dining and extensive amenities. With international migration to South Florida slowing and pressuring the apartment market, “the broker community wants to have something positive to say,” he observed.

New York-based Corcoran broker Kirsten Jordan noted that wealthy New Yorkers’ “initial reaction” to Mamdani’s primary win “was much stronger.”

“Now we’re in wait-and-see mode,” she said.

Source: Financial Times