Despite election uncertainty and seasonal headwinds, high-end property contracts surge as wealthy buyers return to the market
As Manhattan’s real estate market enters the fourth quarter of 2025, a surprising narrative is emerging: luxury is back. For the first time since June, the city’s high-end housing market has posted two consecutive weeks with more than 30 signed contracts—a notable acceleration compared to the 22-per-week average during the same period in 2024. The uptick comes at a time when trading volumes typically decline, as fall traditionally marks a seasonal slowdown before the holiday lull. Yet beneath this momentum lies a market of stark contrasts. According to recent analysis by The Real Deal, approximately one-third of condominium sales across New York City this year have closed below their original purchase price—a sobering reminder that not all sellers are benefiting equally from current conditions. The exception? Ultra-luxury properties priced at $10 million and above, which continue to deliver substantial returns regardless of location or acquisition timing.
Multiple Catalysts Fuel Renewed Activity
Several macro factors appear to be fueling the recent contract surge. U.S. equity markets continue their relentless march to new all-time highs, creating a wealth effect among the city’s affluent buyers. Combined with a weakening dollar and persistent inflation, hard assets like Manhattan real estate are regaining their appeal as a store of value and hedge against currency depreciation. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut this week provides an additional tailwind, even as mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the pandemic-era lows that defined 2020 and 2021. Perhaps more significantly, inventory levels remain compressed well below historical norms—a supply constraint that has only intensified as sellers increasingly shift listings to off-market channels, seeking greater discretion and control over their transactions.
Political Uncertainty Looms Large
Still, uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook. The upcoming mayoral election has injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly among buyers concerned about potential policy shifts under new leadership. While the psychological impact has been palpable—evidenced by anxious conversations among brokers and their clients—the data has yet to reflect any material slowdown attributable to electoral jitters.
The narrative that wealthy New Yorkers are preparing to flee should a more progressive candidate prevail has so far proven more rhetoric than reality. Year-over-year contract activity remains robust, suggesting that reports of the city’s demise among its moneyed class have been greatly exaggerated.
A Market Defined by Segmentation
What’s increasingly clear is that Manhattan real estate can no longer be discussed as a monolithic entity. The divergence between winners and losers has rarely been more pronounced. Properties at the apex of the market—those commanding eight-figure price tags—continue to appreciate, insulated by scarcity, global demand, and the enduring appeal of trophy assets in one of the world’s premier cities. Meanwhile, mid-tier condos and properties in less sought-after neighborhoods face headwinds, with many sellers forced to accept losses if they purchased at market peaks in recent years. Location, product quality, and price point matter more than ever.
Looking Ahead
The convergence of the election cycle with the traditional holiday season suggests a probable deceleration in the weeks ahead. Buyers and sellers alike tend to step back during November and December, and this year’s political backdrop may amplify that pattern. Yet the fundamentals supporting Manhattan’s luxury segment remain intact: constrained supply, substantial wealth creation in financial markets, and the city’s irreplaceable position in the global urban hierarchy. If history serves as any guide, betting against New York—particularly its high-end real estate market—has consistently proven unwise. As 2025 draws to a close, the question isn’t whether Manhattan will endure. It’s which segments of the market will thrive, and who will be positioned to capitalize on the opportunities that emerge from today’s uncertainty.
