Manhattan’s residential real estate landscape is witnessing a historic surge in cash transactions for condominiums and co-ops, setting a new record despite recent signs of a slight easing in mortgage rates.
According to the Manhattan quarterly sales report by Douglas Elliman, compiled by appraiser Miller Samuel and released on Wednesday, cash sales accounted for over two-thirds of transactions in the fourth quarter, marking a significant increase from the third quarter’s 56.7%. This surge in cash purchases is attributed to a “sharp rise” in mortgage rates, reaching the highest levels since 2000.
Freddie Mac data reveals that by October, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had climbed to nearly 7.8%, a level not seen since 2000, driven by the Federal Reserve’s series of rate hikes over the past two years. However, there was a slight decrease below 7% in mid-December, and recent indications suggest a continued downward trend in rates. The Federal Reserve has hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts this year, which could potentially stimulate the sales market.
The fourth-quarter report also highlights a 5.1% year-over-year increase in the median sales price in Manhattan, reaching $1.16 million. This uptick marks the first increase in five quarters and represents the second-highest fourth-quarter level on record. Concurrently, the year-over-year listing inventory declined for a third consecutive quarter, contributing to the overall market dynamics.
Jonathan Miller, the President and CEO of Miller Samuel, anticipates that potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could invigorate the sales market, diverting demand from the highly competitive rental market. This shift in demand is evident in a separate Elliman report, revealing a drop in the median rent in November for the first time in over two years, signaling a cooling trend in Manhattan’s previously red-hot rental market.