real estate

Resurgence in Big Apple Retail: A Beacon of Hope Amidst Economic Challenges

By Columbus International,23 January 2024

In the face of the pandemic’s challenges, New York City’s retail sector has not only weathered the storm but has emerged stronger than ever. Unlike many other segments of the city’s commercial market, retail has experienced a remarkable resurgence, with owners seizing opportunities to lease prime spaces at reduced rates and shorter terms, triggering a notable revival. Gene Spiegelman of Ripco remarked, “We’ve seen a fairly healthy amount of recovery, with rents down by an impressive 50%.” This decline in rental costs has sparked a feeding frenzy for well-located spaces, particularly benefiting vacant restaurants and luxury fashion fronts. A noteworthy transaction in this revitalized landscape is Dolce & Gabbana securing the unique former Hermès store at 695 Madison Ave. Similarly, Prada made a significant investment, paying $835 million to retail tycoon Jeff Sutton for a building at 724 Fifth Ave., along with the adjacent structure at 720 Fifth Ave., formerly dominated by Abercrombie & Fitch. Jeff Sutton had initially planned a slender new tower in the area next to the Aman Hotel in the Crown Building. However, it remains uncertain whether this development will proceed as originally envisioned.

The positive momentum in the retail sector is further complemented by favorable changes in mortgage rates. Since November, mortgage rates have been on a downward trend, aligning with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield—a crucial factor influencing loan pricing. The easing of these rates reflects optimism that inflation has cooled sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts later this year. Currently, the average rate on a 30-year home loan stands at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. While this rate is lower than in previous weeks, it remains significantly higher than the 3.56% recorded just two years ago. This disparity has contributed to a limited inventory of previously occupied homes on the market, dissuading homeowners from selling due to the contrast in interest rates. Despite the easing of mortgage rates, existing home sales experienced a 1% decline in December compared to the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million—the slowest sales pace since August 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales for December fell by 6.2% from the previous year, falling short of economists’ expectations. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, expressed optimism, stating, “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.” In the midst of economic uncertainties, the resilience and resurgence of the Big Apple’s retail sector stand as a beacon of hope, signaling potential positive shifts in the real estate landscape as the new year unfolds.

The Castles of Gaiole in Chianti and San Donato in Perano: Stories of History, Wine and Real Estate

By Columbus International,22 January 2024

Gaiole in Chianti, in the heart of the province of Siena, continues to be the stage for an epic narrative involving two castles steeped in history, noble houses, and winemaking traditions. While the Castle of Gaiole still seeks its guardian, another fortress, the Castle of San Donato in Perano, awaits a new chapter in its millennia-long story. San Donato in Perano is a fortress that speaks of centuries-old battles and nobility, of hills holding secrets between heaven and earth, and of wine flowing like vital blood through the history of Chianti. Despite its medieval charm, the fortress has failed to find buyers in past auctions, including the one in 2017.

Now, it prepares for a new sales attempt on April 8th, with a starting bid of 3.2 million euros. San Donato in Perano is not merely a testament of stone and history; it was the pulsating heart of Chianti Classico production. However, the crisis severely impacted the industrious agricultural estate of the Strozzi family, leading to the sale of its viticultural part, now owned by Frescobaldi. Despite the castle retaining its majesty amidst the gentle hills of Siena, the absence of its vineyards seems to have compromised its appeal in the eyes of investors.

The castle, with its vastness encompassing villas, residences, and chapels with ancient souls, seeks to allure distinguished buyers with a collection of precious furnishings and historical machinery. However, without its vineyards, the castle risks losing part of its allure, failing to engage those who seek not only history but also profitability. The future of San Donato in Perano hangs in limbo, and speculations about its transformation are diverse. Some dream of seeing it turned into an exclusive resort, while others hope for a patron who can enhance its history.

Enthusiasts of culture and historical heritage hold their breath, hoping that this castle does not become yet another forgotten beauty. While awaiting that spring auction, Chianti looks at its castles with a mix of nostalgia and hope. It is wished that someone can recognize in them not just real estate but true pieces of Italian history to preserve and cherish for future generations.

Global Real Estate Markets in Flux: New York and Milan Buck the Trend

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

The latest edition of the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index reveals a significant shift in housing market imbalances across major cities worldwide. According to the report, only Zurich and Tokyo retain their status as being at risk of a housing bubble, marking a substantial improvement from the previous year’s nine cities in this category.

Notably, New York and Milan stand out as cities that have experienced positive adjustments, moving towards fair valuation. The overall trend indicates a decline in housing market imbalances, attributed to the impact of global inflation and rising interest rates over the past two years. On average, real house prices in 25 major cities fell by 5% from mid-2022 to mid-2023. Despite this correction, the report suggests the possibility of further downside in prices. New York, along with Boston, San Francisco, and Madrid, has witnessed a drop in imbalances, leading to a classification of being fairly valued. Similarly, Milan, São Paulo, and Warsaw have also achieved fair valuation status. This transformation is noteworthy as it signals a departure from the bubble risk category and indicates a stabilizing real estate market.

The decline in house price growth is attributed to the substantial increase in financing costs, with average mortgage rates nearly tripling since 2021 in most markets. Annual nominal price growth in the analyzed cities stalled after a 10% rise in the previous year. In real terms, prices are now 5% lower than in mid-2022, erasing most gains made during the pandemic. The sharp drop in housing market imbalances is not solely due to falling prices but is also influenced by inflation-driven income and rental growth.

Mortgage lending growth has halved since mid-2022, leading to a decline in household debt to income, particularly in Europe. However, despite these positive shifts, the affordability of living space remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. Some cities are already witnessing the seeds of the next property price boom. Hybrid working has not significantly weakened demand for city living, and a housing shortage is anticipated as fewer building permits have been issued, especially in European urban centers. In the Americas, while Miami and New York show varying trends, New York’s housing market is on a strong comeback, with a 3% increase in real prices between mid-2022 and mid-2023. Conversely, Boston’s housing market dynamics have weakened. In Europe, Milan stands out with a 2% drop in real prices, attributed to local rental and income growth, but with solid economic prospects.

Miami is much more than just a bubble. It is a journey towards technological and real estate innovation

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

In recent times, Miami has emerged as a beacon of potential, drawing attention from global investors, particularly those from Italy seeking promising opportunities. The city’s transformation into a burgeoning tech hub has captured the imagination, prompting discerning investors to explore the possibilities that extend beyond mere hype. Once renowned as the capital of Latin America and a thriving hub for tourism and real estate, Miami has swiftly evolved into one of the fastest-growing tech ecosystems in America. This seismic shift began in 2020 when influential Silicon Valley executives like Keith Rabois and Jon Oringer chose to relocate during the pandemic, attracting interest from other major players. The turning point occurred with a tweet from Mayor Francis Suarez in December 2020, responding to the prospect of moving Silicon Valley to Miami with a simple question: “How can I help?”

This enthusiastic embrace from Miami’s leadership signaled a commitment to facilitating relocations, conferences, and other essential elements for fostering innovation. Initiatives like Venture Miami have contributed to the city’s success, resulting in a surge in startup creation and tech job growth. The financial landscape attests to Miami’s tech momentum, with startups securing record-breaking financing in 2021 and continuing to flourish in 2023. The region attracted $5.8 billion in venture capital in 2021, with over $300 million invested in the first quarter of 2023 alone, surpassing the total for all of 2019. Miami now stands as the fourth-largest recipient of VC funding nationwide, trailing behind established coastal hubs like San Francisco. This surge in investment has not only propelled Miami’s tech sector but has also ignited a boom in luxury real estate, with high-net-worth tech leaders like Jeff Bezos and Citadel’s Ken Griffin acquiring multimillion-dollar properties. The emergence of $50 million-plus luxury towers and penthouses exceeding $100 million signifies an expectation of substantial future wealth creation.

Beyond the glamorous headlines lies the real narrative of everyday Miamians building startups focused on Latin America, blockchain, climate tech, health innovation, and more. The foundation for broader transformation is laid in local coworking spaces and small seed deals, reflecting a diverse and sustainable tech ecosystem. While discussions about the possibility of a bubble persist, Miami’s intrinsic strengths, including accessible capital, a supportive government, and access to Latin American markets, remain steadfast. The city’s tech sector, with over 10,000 jobs added last year, continues to exhibit favorable momentum, defying concerns of a mere hype cycle. Investors contemplating Miami’s potential need not fear irrational exuberance; the city stands on solid ground with genuine prospects for long-term success. As Miami cements itself as one of the country’s preeminent emerging tech ecosystems, the convergence of lower costs and strengthened ties between North and Latin American businesses ensures a promising future. While the tides of growth may fluctuate, the foundation laid ensures that Miami’s tech evolution is far more than a fleeting bubble – it’s a sustainable and exciting journey toward innovation.

Djokovic’s Grand Slam in Real Estate: From Serbia’s Courts to Global Homes in Miami and New York City

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

Exclusivity befitting the elite. In June 2023, Novak Djokovic achieved an unprecedented milestone, surpassing Steffi Graf’s long-held record to become the world’s number one tennis player for an astounding 378 weeks. Originating from Serbia, Djokovic commenced his professional journey in 2003, swiftly ascending through the international tennis echelons to stand alongside legends like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. His dominance in the game reached new heights with a remarkable 10th Australian Open title and a historic 23rd major title at the French Open in early 2023.

Beyond the tennis court, Djokovic’s triumphs reverberate in the realm of luxury real estate, with opulent residences spanning the globe—from Monte Carlo and Miami to New York City and his hometown, Belgrade. These homes provide a glimpse into the lifestyle of a tennis virtuoso who has etched his name in the annals of the sport. Following in the footsteps of fellow athletes like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Caroline Wozniacki, Djokovic acquired a residence in Monte Carlo shortly after turning professional in 2003. Situated atop a hill overlooking the Mediterranean sea, this undisclosed property served as his main residence for approximately 15 years before his relocation to Spain in 2020. Despite the move, Djokovic retains ownership of this Monte Carlo abode and has fond memories of the Monte-Carlo Country Club, a hub for top players, where he felt the gratifying experience of sleeping in his own bed during tournaments. Over a decade later, Djokovic showcased his real estate prowess by securing two separate units in a Renzo Piano-designed building in SoHo, NYC, for a combined sum exceeding $10 million. The two-bedroom condos, each spanning 2,000 square feet, boasted luxurious features such as 10-foot-tall ceilings, floor-to-ceiling windows, heated floors, and a private elevator entrance. Djokovic, however, quashed speculation of combining them, maintaining distinct residences.

Additionally, he invested in a $5.77 million penthouse in another Renzo Piano-designed building in Miami, with the property completed in 2019 but sold in 2020 for $6 million, shortly after his 19th Grand Slam title. Returning to his roots in Belgrade, Djokovic purchased a penthouse overlooking Lake Pavlova for $675,000. This three-bedroom unit underwent modernization, reflecting his commitment to revitalizing his hometown. Djokovic’s impact extends beyond real estate; he contributed to the Novak Tennis Center’s creation in 2009 and played a role in establishing Novak 1 Cafe & Restaurant and Square Nine, the city’s only luxury five-star hotel. The latest addition to Djokovic’s real estate portfolio is a $10 million Moroccan-style mansion in Marbella, Spain. Serving as his current home base, the residence features nine bedrooms, eight bathrooms, marble floors, crystal chandeliers, a home theater, Turkish bath, a spacious indoor gym, and a tennis court where Djokovic practices with his two young children. This lavish retreat became a focal point during the pandemic, offering glimpses into the champion’s private haven through his Instagram posts.

Source: AD

Residential Price Surge in Italy: Arcano Partners Forecasts a Gradual Increase of 1-5% Annually

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

Arcano Research anticipates a steady rise in housing prices in Italy. The recently debuted research firm expects an annual increase of 1% to 5%, driven by recovering demand, improved family purchasing power, and a persistently low housing supply despite the rebound in construction activity.

Compared to other major European countries, the number of new homes constructed in Italy remains relatively low, even with the increase in building permits. This helps to mitigate the rise in raw material costs that typically impacts construction activity. Ignacio de la Torre, Chief Economist at Arcano Partners, highlighted positive signs of recovery in both the sentiment of the construction sector and the activity, which, coupled with the decrease in construction costs, is expected to lead to an acceleration in the initiation of new construction projects in the next twelve months. However, this pace may not be sufficient to close the gap with other major European countries. In the long term, Arcano’s analysis suggests that housing prices tend to follow salary trends and the nominal GDP growth, with Italy well-positioned to narrow the negative gap with the rest of Europe.

According to the analysis, estimates for the next year indicate a real GDP growth of 0.5% in Italy compared to 0.7% in 2023, before accelerating to 1.2% in 2025, a trajectory lower than the expected average European growth for 2025. Medium-term challenges include managing public finances and the labor market, areas that will require further structural reforms to align Italy with high per capita income countries. In the short term, however, Arcano Research suggests that economic growth will slow, but not significantly. Moreover, in the current economic cycle, Italy appears better positioned than other countries like Germany, thanks to less exposure to China’s weakness and a stronger presence in robust service sectors such as tourism.

Private consumption will remain the primary driver of growth in the medium term. Families will have more spending capacity, drawing from excess savings accumulated during the pandemic and benefiting from a partial recovery of their purchasing power, with salaries expected to increase more than inflation in 2024. Structurally, the research notes that the adjusted labor cost for productivity in Italy remains competitive, and there are ample growth opportunities in terms of potential labor supply with the implementation of necessary structural reforms.

Source: Il Sole 24 Ore

New York City Rental Market Shows Signs of Cooling with Increased Vacancy Rates

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

The residential rental market in New York City has been gradually cooling, with an increase in inventory and a rise in the rental vacancy rate in Manhattan to 3.4 percent, the highest level since July 2021. According to the December market report by Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman, the median rental price in Manhattan remained flat at $4,050 per month on a year-over-year basis. In contrast, Brooklyn’s median rent increased by 5 percent to $3,469, although it was still down from its record high in July.

The higher vacancy rate in Manhattan suggests that rents are likely to decrease further across the five boroughs in 2024. This shift is attributed to landlords facing challenges in retaining tenants, leading to an anticipation of weakness in the market. The overall economic climate, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s promise of interest rate cuts next year, supports this trend. Listing inventory has grown in both Brooklyn and Manhattan over the past year, resulting in declining average rents and significant increases in new leases signed in December. Manhattan’s average asking rent decreased by 3.8 percent from November to December, reaching $4,952, and dipped 5.6 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, new residential leases in Manhattan increased by nearly 8 percent to 3,632, a 14 percent year-over-year growth. Brooklyn experienced a decrease in the average monthly rent to $3,754 in December, down 0.8 percent from the previous month and 1.6 percent from December 2022.

However, the median rental price rose by 5 percent year-over-year to $3,469. The listing inventory in Brooklyn increased by 8 percent compared to the previous year, with a 115 percent surge in the number of new leases signed. In Queens, Elliman and Miller Samuel tracked only Long Island City and Astoria. Average asking rents in these areas rose by 6 percent month-over-month to $3,601, and nearly 10 percent on a year-over-year basis. The number of new leases signed in northwest Queens increased by 26 percent from the previous month and 58 percent from December 2022.

West Village Claims Title for New York City’s Priciest Real Estate, Says The Wall Street Journal

By Columbus International,17 January 202417 January 2024

According to The Wall Street Journal, the West Village, located along the Hudson River in lower Manhattan, exudes the charm of old New York, and homeowners are willing to pay a premium for it. In December, the neighborhood’s 10014 ZIP Code claimed the title of the city’s most expensive residential real estate based on median price per square foot, reaching $2,366, as reported by Realtor.com (operated by News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal).

The high cost per square foot in this ZIP Code is attributed to the fact that much of the limited housing stock, spread across approximately 0.57 square miles, is located in a historic district. The Landmarks Preservation Commission reviews and approves any demolition of existing structures and new construction, keeping the housing supply relatively low, explains Jared Barnett, a real-estate agent and co-founder of Compass’s the Barnett-Bittencourt Team. He emphasizes that the scarcity in supply contributes to the higher prices in the area.

The West Village, with its rich cultural history rooted in arts and entertainment, also boasts some of the most sought-after restaurants and shopping destinations in New York City. Notable places include the historic jazz club Village Vanguard, the rustic Italian restaurant L’Artusi, the Cherry Lane Theatre (the oldest continuously running off-Broadway spot in NYC), The Stonewall Inn (a significant site for the LGBT civil-rights movement), and the literary haven Three Lives & Company. Following the West Village, Tribeca’s 10007 ZIP Code ranks second in New York City for the most expensive median price per square foot, reaching $2,136 in December. However, Tribeca’s 10013 ZIP Code claims the city’s highest median listing price at $4.93 million.

For potential buyers in the West Village, Columbus International recommends keeping in mind the various architectural styles, ranging from Greek Revival to Art Deco to Italianate. We suggest exploring the variety of housing options, including townhouses, classic doorman co-op buildings, historic homes, and modern residences, especially along the river. The price per square foot varies widely, from approximately $1,000 to $5,000 or more. To prospective buyers, we advise assessing the differences between co-ops, which involve rigorous approval processes, and condos, offering greater flexibility to owners, in order to make informed decisions in this diverse neighborhood.

Manhattan Real Estate Sees Record Cash Transactions Despite Mortgage Rate Surge

By Columbus International,4 January 2024

Manhattan’s residential real estate landscape is witnessing a historic surge in cash transactions for condominiums and co-ops, setting a new record despite recent signs of a slight easing in mortgage rates.

According to the Manhattan quarterly sales report by Douglas Elliman, compiled by appraiser Miller Samuel and released on Wednesday, cash sales accounted for over two-thirds of transactions in the fourth quarter, marking a significant increase from the third quarter’s 56.7%. This surge in cash purchases is attributed to a “sharp rise” in mortgage rates, reaching the highest levels since 2000.

Freddie Mac data reveals that by October, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had climbed to nearly 7.8%, a level not seen since 2000, driven by the Federal Reserve’s series of rate hikes over the past two years. However, there was a slight decrease below 7% in mid-December, and recent indications suggest a continued downward trend in rates. The Federal Reserve has hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts this year, which could potentially stimulate the sales market.

The fourth-quarter report also highlights a 5.1% year-over-year increase in the median sales price in Manhattan, reaching $1.16 million. This uptick marks the first increase in five quarters and represents the second-highest fourth-quarter level on record. Concurrently, the year-over-year listing inventory declined for a third consecutive quarter, contributing to the overall market dynamics.

Jonathan Miller, the President and CEO of Miller Samuel, anticipates that potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could invigorate the sales market, diverting demand from the highly competitive rental market. This shift in demand is evident in a separate Elliman report, revealing a drop in the median rent in November for the first time in over two years, signaling a cooling trend in Manhattan’s previously red-hot rental market.

Revival of the Cubicle: As Office Workers Return, a Surprising Comeback Unfolds

By Columbus International,27 December 2023

As the calendar marches towards 2024, New York’s office sector is witnessing a glimmer of hope amid a landscape of challenges that have redefined the traditional scenario. The dynamics of demand, employment trends, and the ever-changing preferences of the workforce have compelled office owners and real estate investors to adapt to unprecedented changes.

Low Demand and High Availability: A Continuous Challenge
Office owners and real estate investors in New York are gearing up for another year of low demand and high availability. The consequences of the pandemic have left a lasting imprint on how companies operate, with many opting for remote or hybrid work models. The struggle to attract tenants to traditional office spaces persists, and navigating this challenging terrain will be a key theme for the upcoming year.

Record Office Occupancy During the Holiday Season
In an unexpected reversal, office occupancy levels are reaching new highs during the holiday season. This increase contrasts sharply with the prevailing trend of remote work and signals a potential shift in attitudes toward in-person collaboration. The festive season has become a catalyst for employees to reconnect with their work environment, sparking theories and hypotheses about the role of the office in fostering team spirit and corporate culture.

The Impact of Covid-19 on Workspace Trends
The pandemic has acted as an amplifier for a trend that was already underway: the growing importance of quiet and private spaces within work environments. While remote work provided relief from noisy and disruptive colleagues, it also introduced new distractions, such as interruptions from family members and the constant temptation to engage in household chores or spend time on social media. With the return of workers to the office, the focus on creating conducive work environments to address these challenges has never been more crucial.

The Rise of Quiet Spaces: A Billion-Dollar Market
The demand for private spaces in offices has given rise to a flourishing market. Cubicles and partitions, once overshadowed by open collaboration spaces, are now valued components of office design. According to a 2022 report from Business Research Insights, this market is expected to grow from $6.3 billion to $8.3 billion in the next five years, underscoring the significance of this transformation in workplace dynamics.

Adapting Workspaces to Hybrid Work Models
Companies are navigating the delicate balance between remote work and in-office mandates, prompting a reevaluation of office layouts. Grassi, a New York-based auditing and accounting firm, exemplifies this trend by reconfiguring its offices into hybrid spaces. The emphasis is on creating a combination of cubicles or semi-private areas alongside open collaboration spaces, reflecting the evolving needs of the workforce.

Versatile Workspaces for a Diverse Workforce
Recognizing the diverse needs of employees, many employers now offer a range of workspaces, including shared offices, conference rooms, phone booths, and libraries. This approach aims to strike the right balance between collaborative work and individual concentration, catering to the preferences and productivity requirements of a varied workforce.

As New York’s office sector looks ahead to 2024, the industry is at a crossroads, balancing the challenges of low demand with a renewed focus on creating versatile and employee-centric workspaces. The evolution of office design, driven by the lessons learned during the pandemic, will continue to shape the future of work in the bustling metropolis.

Source: The New York Times