New York investments

Challenges and Hope: The Roller Coaster Ride of US Home Sales in 2023

By Columbus International,23 January 2024

In 2023, the US housing market faced significant headwinds, resulting in a nearly 30-year low in previously occupied home sales. Rising mortgage rates, soaring prices, and limited inventory created a challenging landscape for prospective homeowners. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales plummeted to 4.09 million last year, marking an 18.7% decline from 2022. This represents the weakest year for home sales since 1995 and the most substantial annual drop since the housing slump of 2007. The median national home price reached a record high of $389,800, experiencing a modest uptick of just under 1% for the entire year, as reported by the NAR. The surge in mortgage rates in 2023, reaching a two-decade high of 7.08% in late October, added to the challenges.

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and control inflation contributed to this increase. High borrowing costs, coupled with already soaring home prices, constrained the purchasing power of potential homebuyers. However, there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Mortgage rates have been easing since November, aligning with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield. The optimism stems from the belief that inflation has subsided enough for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates this year. As of this week, the average rate on a 30-year home loan stands at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. Economists anticipate further rate easing, which could boost demand as the spring homebuying season approaches in late February. Despite the positive outlook, the current average rate remains significantly higher than two years ago when it stood at 3.56%. This substantial gap has contributed to a limited supply of previously occupied homes on the market, as homeowners with rock-bottom rates hesitate to sell. In December, existing home sales declined by 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million—the slowest pace since August 2010, according to the NAR. December’s sales fell by 6.2% from a year earlier, missing economists’ expectations. Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, remains cautiously optimistic, stating, “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.” While challenges persist, there is anticipation for a positive shift in the housing market as we step into the new year.

Source: New York Post

New York City Foreign Investment Surges to 4-Year High: 32% Buyers Worldwide

By Columbus International,22 December 2023

Amid the backdrop of the pandemic, foreign investors, who had been on the sidelines, reentered the city’s sales market in 2023, marking the highest proportion of the total buyer pool since 2019. According to a report by brokerage Avison Young, international buyers comprised 32.4 percent of the city’s investors this year. This surge surpassed the figures for both 2021 and 2022 and slightly edged out the 32.3 percent recorded in 2020. As of mid-December, the dollar volume for 2023 had tripled year-over-year, propelling New York City back to the forefront as the prime destination for foreign investment, as outlined in the Avison Young report. The tightening of financing markets in early 2023, exacerbated by the rate hikes of 2022, prompted domestic investors to scale back. This created an opening for overseas buyers, who, equipped with substantial capital, could forgo the need for loans. James Nelson, Avison Young’s head of tri-state investment sales, noted, “Once financing became more expensive and began to dry up, I think that’s when the foreign investors, being cash buyers, were able to compete.”

The primary buyers of city real estate by dollar volume in 2023 were Qatar and Japan, securing the top two positions. Qatar-based firms closed deals surpassing $1 billion, while Japanese investors accounted for just under $1 billion. Japanese buyers were attracted by depreciation benefits and superior returns, explained Avison Young broker Brandon Polakoff. With the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond remaining below 1 percent throughout 2023, compared to the approximately 4 percent average for the U.S. 10-year treasury rate, the appeal for Japanese investors was evident. Foreign buyers predominantly gravitated towards stabilized assets, evident in recent transactions. In the fourth quarter, Japanese investors concluded deals on three fully occupied, gut-renovated properties, totaling around $35 million. Examples of these transactions included the sale of 96 Sterling Place in Park Slope to Japanese investment firm Sow Kousan for about $17 million and 422 East 81st Street on the Upper East Side to Shink for approximately $11 million, both confirmed by property records. Additionally, Peak Capital Advisors and JAM Real Estate Partners sold 355 East 50th Street for $8 million to Kenbishi Sake Brewing, Japan’s inaugural branded sake brewery.

Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve implements its projected three rate cuts next year, foreign investors may take a back seat to domestic buyers due to more affordable financing stimulating local demand. “I don’t think foreign buyers are going to be counted out,” asserted Nelson, “but they definitely will have more competition from U.S.-based investors next year.”

Source: The Real Deal

It’s a Good Time to Make a Deal in New York Real Estate, Forbes Reports

By Columbus International,11 October 2023

New York City’s real estate market has responded robustly to the economic uncertainties of the first half of 2023. Many potential buyers in our market initially postponed their plans following the 50 basis point increase in the Federal Reserve rate in December (which came after several 75 basis point increases). As mortgage rates continued to rise and the stock market declined, transaction volume, which had been steadily declining throughout the second half of 2022, remained sluggish in January.

Surprisingly, February saw a turnaround, and March brought further improvements. However, the successful deals were strongly linked to price reductions or setting highly realistic listing prices. There is no room for overly optimistic pricing in 2023. The high-end market (homes priced at $10 million and above) has borne the brunt of this correction year.

During the first two months of the year, few high-end listings found buyers, and the ones that did either possessed unique features or were fortunate to connect with that one buyer whose needs aligned perfectly with the property. Owners who purchased their properties since 2014 or 2015 have had to accept significant losses to make a sale. In the $4 million to $10 million market, the Olshan Luxury Market Report, which tracks contract activity at $4 million and above, saw a notable increase from just over 16 deals per week in January to an average of 25 deals per week in February, and nearly 32 deals per week for the first three weeks of March. Nevertheless, many luxury properties with seven, eight, or nine rooms can still linger on the market for extended periods, primarily due to pricing.

Since January, half of the emails received by New York agents have announced price reductions! Arguably, the most active market in the city is for lower-priced units, especially those priced at $2,500,000 and below. The rental market remains exceedingly strong, currently at its highest point in recent memory (though somewhat weaker than six months ago). Properties in the $2 million and below range tend to favor buying over renting, especially on an after-tax basis. Inventory remains limited at this level. Despite disruptions caused by the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the New York market has experienced increased activity as spring approaches.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its target rate by only 25 basis points, a repeat of its late January decision, suggests a halt to the more substantial increases that took the Fed rate from 0.25% to just under 5% within a year. Although the correlation between the Fed rate and mortgage rates is not perfect (mortgage rates are more influenced by the bond market), it’s clear that the considerable increase in the Fed rates has driven mortgage rates upward, impacting buyer confidence as monthly purchase costs rise.

Especially for younger buyers who’ve grown accustomed to the artificially low rates prevailing since the 2008 recession, a mortgage rate of 5% or 6% remains low by historical standards. The gradual acceptance of this reality by buyers has played a role in the real estate market’s gradual recovery. Several factors make it challenging to predict the second quarter accurately. The stability of regional banks remains uncertain, and the Credit Suisse merger with UBS signals that the banking crisis is not confined to the United States. Meanwhile, inventory remains tight in various segments of the New York market, and even cautious buyers often struggle to find suitable listings. Stock market volatility and inflation may continue, but the worst of the significant price declines seems to be behind us, and property costs have stabilized. Forbes reports that it’s an opportune time to strike a deal!