In 2023, the US housing market faced significant headwinds, resulting in a nearly 30-year low in previously occupied home sales. Rising mortgage rates, soaring prices, and limited inventory created a challenging landscape for prospective homeowners. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales plummeted to 4.09 million last year, marking an 18.7% decline from 2022. This represents the weakest year for home sales since 1995 and the most substantial annual drop since the housing slump of 2007. The median national home price reached a record high of $389,800, experiencing a modest uptick of just under 1% for the entire year, as reported by the NAR. The surge in mortgage rates in 2023, reaching a two-decade high of 7.08% in late October, added to the challenges.

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and control inflation contributed to this increase. High borrowing costs, coupled with already soaring home prices, constrained the purchasing power of potential homebuyers. However, there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Mortgage rates have been easing since November, aligning with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield. The optimism stems from the belief that inflation has subsided enough for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates this year. As of this week, the average rate on a 30-year home loan stands at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. Economists anticipate further rate easing, which could boost demand as the spring homebuying season approaches in late February. Despite the positive outlook, the current average rate remains significantly higher than two years ago when it stood at 3.56%. This substantial gap has contributed to a limited supply of previously occupied homes on the market, as homeowners with rock-bottom rates hesitate to sell. In December, existing home sales declined by 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million—the slowest pace since August 2010, according to the NAR. December’s sales fell by 6.2% from a year earlier, missing economists’ expectations. Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, remains cautiously optimistic, stating, “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.” While challenges persist, there is anticipation for a positive shift in the housing market as we step into the new year.

Source: New York Post