We are witnessing a real estate boom in South Florida. In the heart of Miami, spaces are being cleared for the construction of the tallest office tower in Florida, with 1.5 million square meters set to house companies that previously had no presence in the state. St. Regis and Waldorf-Astoria branded condominium towers are also in the works. Even though their completion is still a way off, many of the yet-to-be-built units have already been reserved with substantial deposits from buyers.
A similar situation is occurring further north in West Palm Beach, where the arrival of financial giants like Goldman Sachs and Blackrock has driven office lease rates to record levels in the second quarter of this year. Now, new workplaces with private terraces and yacht rental access are rising along the city’s waterfront, while developers plan condominiums for future employees. “We have four or five thousand people coming to West Palm Beach who aren’t here yet,” said Nick Bienstock, CEO of New York City office landlord Savanna. Eager to play its part in this market, Savanna is making its first investment in Florida, a 275-unit condominium called Olara, part of the 3,000 new homes currently in development throughout West Palm Beach. Over three years since the start of a massive migration of money and people to the Sunshine State, Florida’s real estate market continues to outperform nearly all others in the United States. What began as a refuge from cold weather and pandemic restrictions has transformed into a place that not only welcomes the current influx of professionals but also aims to double the number of future arrivals.
“The old Florida of the 1980s is disappearing,” said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist at the Florida Atlantic University College of Business. “We are no longer receiving those retirees with fixed income who used to come. We are getting people with significant incomes, and they usually bring work and employment with them.” In fact, according to a recent report by financial consultant SmartAsset, Florida is the number one destination for professionals aged 25 to 36 earning at least $200,000. But the most crucial data is that in recent years, high incomes coming to Florida outnumber those leaving by a three-to-one margin. Along with the young and jobs, newcomers also bring liquidity, buying homes in a state that has far too few. The result is a market that continues to excel on nearly every superlative list. For example, out of the ten most overvalued real estate markets in the country, seven are in Florida, according to a monthly analysis co-published by Professor Johnson. This means that Florida buyers are paying the highest premiums for their homes nationally compared to price averages over the last 27 years.
The median home price in Miami rose by 14.6% in August compared to the previous year, according to the brokerage Redfin, and by 5.3% in nearby Fort Lauderdale, where the downtown population has increased by 80% since 2010. These peaks come just as other “boom cities” of the pandemic era experience continuous declines: home prices in Phoenix fell by 2% in August, Fort Worth dropped by 2.7%, and Austin, which ranked last on Redfin’s price growth list, fell by 7%. And this is the good news: these numbers follow double-digit corrections in Phoenix and Austin just a few months earlier. “Texas is different from Florida even though both are identified as states without income taxes,” said Eli Beracha, director of the Hollo School of Real Estate at Florida International University.
“Florida is seen as a tropical vacation destination – where you can also live. People don’t vacation in Dallas.” During the pandemic, Florida recorded the largest wealth migration flow in the United States. In 2021 alone, new arrivals increased the state’s taxable income by $39.3 billion, more than triple what Texas, the second-place state, did, according to the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. Census data released in September suggests that this growth will continue: Florida’s population increased by 2.13% – the largest jump in the U.S. – between 2021 and 2022. “Florida is undergoing a reset and restructuring in a way that no one else is doing,” said Jonathan Miller, president of real estate appraisal company Miller Samuel. What sets this current cycle apart is “that all of this is happening without a huge amount of international demand” that fueled Florida’s previous real estate and demographic booms. So, what’s fueling it now?
“New Yorkers are the new foreign buyers,” Miller said, referring to the nearly 130,000 Empire State residents who moved to the Sunshine State in 2021 and 2022 alone. Many of these new residents split their time between cities, making Florida their primary residence, free from income taxes. Not surprisingly, there is a boom in furnished condominium construction in Miami designed for easy renting while owners are away. Florida has an obvious appeal for northerners. Tired of the issues of large cities such as crime and quality of life shortcomings, and drawn to the tax benefits and beachfront home offices, the state offers a ready-made solution to many of America’s urban problems.
“It’s just a different way people choose to live, and Miami is a big beneficiary of that,” said Nitin Motwani, managing partner of Miami Worldcenter Associates, the master developer of the 27-acre, $6 billion Miami Worldcenter district spanning 10 blocks of the city. Motwani has revealed that he regularly receives calls from executives seeking logistical assistance in relocating south. “Sometimes it’s just things like ‘Where should we look?’ Other times, it’s about discussing talent or ‘Can you put me in touch with another high-level person who has relocated?'” he said. According to news reports this year, the top schools in the Miami area have become so crowded that billionaire newcomers are literally writing million-dollar “charity” checks to secure spots for their children. From every perspective, Florida’s real estate market is exceeding expectations. While this may be good news for investors, the lack of affordable properties has become a concern for “policy makers” who are seeking to incentivize the development of more affordable apartments. A recent report by the Florida Policy Project revealed that over a million residents across the state spend over 50% of their income on housing. Rising homeowners insurance premiums only make matters worse.
According to a recent study by the Florida Apartment Association, Florida will need approximately 500,000 new housing units by 2030 to contain costs and meet future demand. Not surprisingly, Florida’s housing shortage has translated into some of the highest price increases in the nation. Since 2019, the median price of homes and condos in Miami has risen by 64%, according to Miller Samuel. This is compared to a 14% increase in Los Angeles and a 1.2% decrease in Manhattan during the same period. Even outside of Miami, price gains have been robust, with a 62% increase in Boca Raton and a 59% increase in Delray Beach. In the Palm Beach area, rich in finance, residential property has been fueled by the pandemic, with a 141% increase since the second quarter of 2019, according to Miller Samuel. While prices are beginning to stabilize, at least five homes for over $50 million have already been sold this year, including a $155 million complex sold by the widow of Rush Limbaugh. “Forty years ago, Palm Beach was a place where elderly people went for their final years, and today it absolutely isn’t anymore,” said Bienstock of Savanna.
Similar to residential developers, commercial real estate investors are contributing to the continued dominance of South Florida’s real estate, investing over $63 billion in the region’s three counties in 2021 and 2022, according to MSCI Real Assets data. In Miami, New York companies Related Cos and Swire Properties are making a high-profile bet that both human and economic capital migrations to Miami are both permanent and ongoing. They are currently constructing One Brickell City Centre, the tallest office tower in Florida, with 1.5 million square feet and a height of 1,000 feet, in downtown. Developments like One Brickell are crucial for Miami’s continued growth. Corporate relocations increased by 33% last year, while the total assets managed by financial firms in Miami rose to $390 billion in August 2022, up from $75 billion in 2019, according to the Miami Downtown Development Authority.
“The lack is represented by quality office spaces, and that’s the gap we’re trying to fill,” noted David Martin, senior vice president for retail and commercial leasing of Swire’s U.S. operation. In fact, office vacancies stood at just 10.4% in the second quarter of this year in Miami-Dade County, according to Colliers, compared to the historical high of 17.8% in Manhattan and over 30% in San Francisco. Additionally, the city center is now more easily accessible to Boca Raton and Palm Beach thanks to the new $6.2 billion Brightline high-speed rail service. Several other New York developers – from real estate titan Harry Macklowe (who once owned the GM Building), to Chrysler Building owner Aby Rosen, to the Upper East Side condo kings of the Naftali Group – are all planning their debuts in Florida. “There is still a migration of people,” says billionaire developer Richard LeFrak, who has more than doubled his South Florida staff since the pandemic hit. “It’s not as dramatic as it was during COVID, but it’s still a steady flow.”
Source: New York Post