New notarial data confirms a marked decrease in sales in the real estate market. According to the semi-annual Observatory of the National Council of Notaries, in the period from January to June, property transactions fell by 8.7%, while mortgages experienced a decline of 29.3% compared to the same period in the previous year. Although there are methodological differences with the data released by the Revenue Agency, the overall trend of market reduction is undeniable.
The Notarial Observatory points out that the decrease in purchases primarily concerns first homes. This aligns with the fact that non-facilitated properties, often destined for non-residential uses, tend to be paid for in cash, especially in a context of rising mortgage rates. Currently, many Italian families have liquidity, as evidenced by deposits in current accounts amounting to 1,764 billion euros in the previous September. However, economic uncertainty and the expectation of potential price declines may be among the reasons holding back purchases.
Analyzing the data in detail, it emerges that the decrease in transactions was progressive over the semester: -2.7% in the first two months, -4.8% in the first quarter, and -1% in the second quarter of 2023. Transactions of first homes between private parties experienced a reduction of 11%, while those from companies registered a decline of 34.2%. Regarding mortgages, the 29.5% decrease resulted from declines in both the first and second quarters of 2023. In terms of disbursed capital, it went from 38.5 to 26.9 billion euros. 38.6% of mortgages were granted to buyers in the 18-35 age group, benefiting from incentives for young buyers. Future prospects indicate a further decline, with forecasts of -10.5% for transactions and -23.8% for mortgages throughout 2023.
However, these projections may turn out to be optimistic, considering unexpected developments like the further increase in interest rates decided by the ECB. Finally, interest rates on loans for home purchases, including ancillary costs, increased in August, rising from 4.58% in July to 4.67%. Overall, the Italian real estate market is undergoing a phase of significant contraction, influenced by various economic and financial factors.