Transforming the office landscape with an injection of flexibility is a challenge faced with courage. However, it is the burdensome rigidity of lease agreements with major property owners that has led WeWork, the American giant of shared office spaces, to file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11. Since the onset of the pandemic, the office market in the United States has failed to recover. A scenario of vacant square meters and declining rents, which WeWork’s case threatens to exacerbate. The leadership of WeWork assures that this situation is confined to the US and Canada market (the company has 777 locations in about 40 countries and does not affect Italy), but, as stated in the application filed by the company, it will result in the termination of over 40 lease contracts in New York alone.
According to the latest Jll Office Report Q3 – source: Sole 24 Ore – office leasing in the US has decreased by 35% since 2019, with rents falling by 6%. In September, compared to the same month in 2022, defaults on loans for office buildings tripled to around 6%. The net absorption of office spaces decreased by 1.7 million square meters in the third quarter, bringing the total loss of office space to over 4.7 million square meters in just one year. On a quarterly basis, the vacancy rate increased by 39 basis points to 21%, and in just one year, construction began on only 730,000 square meters of new office space, which, in perspective, will mean a lower supply of new and high-quality products compared to demand (with corresponding price pressure). “WeWork – as George Schultze, founder of Schultze Asset Management Llp, wrote in Forbes – is an extreme example, but there is now much concern in the commercial real estate market in general. Banks and insurance companies have financed loans to investors who used a minimal share of their own capital when interest rates were very low, expecting them to remain low for a long time. Now that short-term rates are above 5%, many investors are in trouble, and many lending institutions will take a hard hit when buildings are revalued under current market conditions.”
According to Moody’s, this will have a negative impact on cash flows and market office values, increasing negative sentiment and making refinancing more difficult in the next 12-18 months. According to Nareit (the American Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts), compared to 2015, the market value of offices in publicly traded real estate investment trusts has dropped from 14% to 4%. Although fund managers, as shown by Jll data, note that demand for prime offices, i.e., new high-end spaces (strategic locations, zero emissions, innovative materials and spaces, services such as green areas, restaurants, gyms), remains healthy, albeit subdued. Rents have also increased by an average of 4% since 2019. However, as emphasized by Nareit, these are indeed innovative but “traditional” offices: “Coworking will remain, but it will be a niche.” Perhaps. But opinions diverge here. “Post-pandemic hybrid work is prompting tenants to reduce spaces,” explains Jose Pellicer, Global Head of Investment Strategy at M&G Real Estate, “but the situation in the US is different from in Europe. In the United States, the return rate is 50%, in Europe, it’s 75%, driven by factors such as smaller homes and shorter commuting times.”
“The case of WeWork has raised questions about the future of flexible offices,” wrote Julie Whelan, Global Head of Occupier Thought Leadership at Cbre. However, our recent survey among companies using them indicates a growing demand for flexible lease agreements to meet increasingly relevant space planning scenarios. Therefore, we believe that WeWork’s difficulties are largely attributable to its business model, which tied it to long-term lease commitments made before the pandemic, while simultaneously facing significant costs in a context of sharply rising interest rates. In the latest Bloomberg Market Live Pulse survey, 65% of investors believe that the US office market will only begin to recover after hitting rock bottom; two out of three expect this recovery to occur in the second half of 2024.