The decline in New York home sales has left virtually no one in the real estate industry unscathed, with particular areas of the city’s market experiencing the most acute pain. Despite the seasonal increase in property listings this fall, the market won’t escape the grip of the low-supply environment that has kept prices high, even as mortgage rates have surged, further dissuading potential buyers. For instance, on Staten Island, new property listings in August saw a 17 percent drop, and inventory plummeted by 37 percent compared to the previous year. Simultaneously, the median price rose by 3 percent, and the days a property spent on the market increased by a staggering 50 percent, as reported by the Staten Island Board of Realtors. “These are challenging times for the real estate market,” stated Sandy Krueger, CEO of the organization. “But challenges also create opportunities for those who remain attentive to the market’s signals.”
Here are three key signals to watch as the fall selling season gets underway:
Co-ops: The Losers
Co-op properties were already facing difficulties before the increase in mortgage rates impacted sales. Cheaper co-ops have been particularly affected by the rising rates. Buyers in recent years had become increasingly discouraged by the antiquated rules and bureaucracy of co-op boards. Now, with higher mortgage rates, homebuyers on the lower end of the income spectrum find themselves priced out due to co-ops’ stringent debt-to-income and post-close liquidity requirements. Just a year earlier, a couple earning $240,000 annually could borrow $600,000 for a co-op valued at $750,000 and successfully pass a board application. However, in today’s market, this is no longer possible. This situation is striking, considering that $240,000 is roughly three times the area’s median income in New York City, and $750,000 often represents the starting point for homes in many neighborhoods. Monthly charges are also rising in many co-op buildings due to Local Law 97, which caps greenhouse gas emissions in larger buildings, and Local Law 11, which mandates facade inspections and repairs for buildings taller than six stories every five years. This, in addition to rising rents, makes it increasingly challenging for lower-end and first-time buyers to enter the market.
New Development: The Losers
Developers who had been waiting for a more favorable economic climate before launching their projects may now be compelled by their loan terms to list properties this fall. Projects with units lingering on the market may be forced to offer price reductions. Developers have pre-payment milestones with their lenders and can no longer delay their projects. While some units were overpriced for the current rate environment, others missed the post-lockdown market boom due to supply and labor shortages. For instance, the last available penthouse at One Clinton Street in Brooklyn Heights recently sold for $8 million, down from the original asking price of $10.2 million. An opportunistic buyer’s broker can search for older properties that may have been overlooked, presenting an excellent investment opportunity in the city.
Brooklyn: The Winner
Brooklyn’s real estate market has remained strong throughout the year, a trend that is expected to continue into the fall. Brooklyn has been outperforming Manhattan in terms of market expediency, primarily due to the demand for more space and outdoor living. Brooklyn has been growing into a primary market for years, a trend that accelerated during the lockdown period of the pandemic. Buyers sought to avoid high-rise elevators, subways, and crowded streets. Although transit use has mostly recovered, the shift towards Brooklyn shows no signs of slowing down. “The trend for Brooklyn has been on fire,” remarked UrbanDigs founder John Walkup.
Source: TRD