New York City’s real estate market has responded robustly to the economic uncertainties of the first half of 2023. Many potential buyers in our market initially postponed their plans following the 50 basis point increase in the Federal Reserve rate in December (which came after several 75 basis point increases). As mortgage rates continued to rise and the stock market declined, transaction volume, which had been steadily declining throughout the second half of 2022, remained sluggish in January.
Surprisingly, February saw a turnaround, and March brought further improvements. However, the successful deals were strongly linked to price reductions or setting highly realistic listing prices. There is no room for overly optimistic pricing in 2023. The high-end market (homes priced at $10 million and above) has borne the brunt of this correction year.
During the first two months of the year, few high-end listings found buyers, and the ones that did either possessed unique features or were fortunate to connect with that one buyer whose needs aligned perfectly with the property. Owners who purchased their properties since 2014 or 2015 have had to accept significant losses to make a sale. In the $4 million to $10 million market, the Olshan Luxury Market Report, which tracks contract activity at $4 million and above, saw a notable increase from just over 16 deals per week in January to an average of 25 deals per week in February, and nearly 32 deals per week for the first three weeks of March. Nevertheless, many luxury properties with seven, eight, or nine rooms can still linger on the market for extended periods, primarily due to pricing.
Since January, half of the emails received by New York agents have announced price reductions! Arguably, the most active market in the city is for lower-priced units, especially those priced at $2,500,000 and below. The rental market remains exceedingly strong, currently at its highest point in recent memory (though somewhat weaker than six months ago). Properties in the $2 million and below range tend to favor buying over renting, especially on an after-tax basis. Inventory remains limited at this level. Despite disruptions caused by the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the New York market has experienced increased activity as spring approaches.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its target rate by only 25 basis points, a repeat of its late January decision, suggests a halt to the more substantial increases that took the Fed rate from 0.25% to just under 5% within a year. Although the correlation between the Fed rate and mortgage rates is not perfect (mortgage rates are more influenced by the bond market), it’s clear that the considerable increase in the Fed rates has driven mortgage rates upward, impacting buyer confidence as monthly purchase costs rise.
Especially for younger buyers who’ve grown accustomed to the artificially low rates prevailing since the 2008 recession, a mortgage rate of 5% or 6% remains low by historical standards. The gradual acceptance of this reality by buyers has played a role in the real estate market’s gradual recovery. Several factors make it challenging to predict the second quarter accurately. The stability of regional banks remains uncertain, and the Credit Suisse merger with UBS signals that the banking crisis is not confined to the United States. Meanwhile, inventory remains tight in various segments of the New York market, and even cautious buyers often struggle to find suitable listings. Stock market volatility and inflation may continue, but the worst of the significant price declines seems to be behind us, and property costs have stabilized. Forbes reports that it’s an opportune time to strike a deal!