The latest edition of the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index reveals a significant shift in housing market imbalances across major cities worldwide. According to the report, only Zurich and Tokyo retain their status as being at risk of a housing bubble, marking a substantial improvement from the previous year’s nine cities in this category.
Notably, New York and Milan stand out as cities that have experienced positive adjustments, moving towards fair valuation. The overall trend indicates a decline in housing market imbalances, attributed to the impact of global inflation and rising interest rates over the past two years. On average, real house prices in 25 major cities fell by 5% from mid-2022 to mid-2023. Despite this correction, the report suggests the possibility of further downside in prices. New York, along with Boston, San Francisco, and Madrid, has witnessed a drop in imbalances, leading to a classification of being fairly valued. Similarly, Milan, São Paulo, and Warsaw have also achieved fair valuation status. This transformation is noteworthy as it signals a departure from the bubble risk category and indicates a stabilizing real estate market.
The decline in house price growth is attributed to the substantial increase in financing costs, with average mortgage rates nearly tripling since 2021 in most markets. Annual nominal price growth in the analyzed cities stalled after a 10% rise in the previous year. In real terms, prices are now 5% lower than in mid-2022, erasing most gains made during the pandemic. The sharp drop in housing market imbalances is not solely due to falling prices but is also influenced by inflation-driven income and rental growth.
Mortgage lending growth has halved since mid-2022, leading to a decline in household debt to income, particularly in Europe. However, despite these positive shifts, the affordability of living space remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. Some cities are already witnessing the seeds of the next property price boom. Hybrid working has not significantly weakened demand for city living, and a housing shortage is anticipated as fewer building permits have been issued, especially in European urban centers. In the Americas, while Miami and New York show varying trends, New York’s housing market is on a strong comeback, with a 3% increase in real prices between mid-2022 and mid-2023. Conversely, Boston’s housing market dynamics have weakened. In Europe, Milan stands out with a 2% drop in real prices, attributed to local rental and income growth, but with solid economic prospects.