Columbus International

Retail Renaissance: U.S. Shopping Defies Odds as Investments Surge and AI Revolutionizes the Landscape

By Columbus International,30 January 20249 November 2024

Amid global uncertainties and cautious anticipation at the National Retail Federation’s Big Show, U.S. shoppers continue to defy predictions, propelling retail sales and inspiring confidence among major global retailers. The recent Commerce Department report revealed a higher-than-expected rise in December sales, fueled by online purchases and motor vehicle transactions. Senior executives, gathered at the annual expo, are shifting focus from a decade of retrenchment to discuss expanding store portfolios. Despite concerns about the economy and pandemic aftermath, retail real estate fundamentals are predicted to remain robust in 2024.

CBRE forecasts a decrease in the retail availability rate and a rise in asking rent growth, signaling a positive outlook for the industry. While low-income households face financial challenges, economists anticipate sustained consumer spending, provided the labor market remains stable. Traditional mall-based retailers are adapting by closing underperforming stores and turning to smaller, open-air suburban centers for expansion. CBRE predicts that neighborhood and strip centers will maintain occupancy, while mall and lifestyle centers may experience a slight increase in vacancy rates. Industry veteran Stephen Sadove predicts a “reversion to the mean” in 2024, envisioning a post-pandemic world with e-commerce returning to pre-COVID growth patterns.

Despite the rise of AI and other technologies, Sadove remains optimistic about physical stores, citing a net increase in store openings in 2023. The NRF Big Show highlighted the retail industry’s fascination with artificial intelligence, with AI solutions permeating discussions and expo displays. Google Cloud’s Amy Eschliman sees generative AI as a transformational force akin to the internet and mobile phones, capable of revolutionizing customer and associate experiences. Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell emphasizes the positive impact of AI on pricing science and inventory allocation, stressing the need for retailers to embrace innovation actively. Ulta Beauty CEO Dave Kimbell sees AI as a tool to complement human connections, enhancing guest services and personalization without sacrificing the essential human touch in retail.

Source: Bisnow

From Bulgari to Porsche: Branded Residences Are Flooding the Prime Market – and Selling

By Columbus International,30 January 202430 January 2024

In 1927, the Sherry-Netherland apartment hotel marked a milestone as the world’s first “branded” residence on New York’s Fifth Avenue. Leveraging the reputation of the popular Sherry’s restaurant, the property, with its Gothic minaret and elegant apartments, made waves in the realm of luxury real estate. Fast forward almost a century… and here, the category of “branded” residences has experienced a significant increase, growing by about 150% in the last decade. Today, the landscape boasts over 700 branded residential developments, totaling over 100,000 homes in various stages of completion or planning globally, according to WATG Strategy. And a doubling of the sector’s size is expected by 2027, fueled by increasing interest in established markets like New York, Miami, London, Dubai, as well as in emerging markets like Oman, Poland, and Guyana.

What distinguishes recent years, besides the exponential growth of the sector, is the variety of brands eager to participate, particularly in the luxury segment. In addition to traditional hotel companies, fashion and jewelry houses like Armani, Roberto Cavalli, Fendi, and Bulgari, along with car manufacturers like Porsche, Bentley, and Aston Martin, have entered the arena. Chris Graham, founder of Graham Associates, defines a home with these designer labels as a “trophy purchase.” For both consumer companies and real estate developers, such collaborations prove advantageous for both parties. Recognizable brand names can command premiums on high-end developments, even in the most competitive markets. Edgardo Defortuna, president and founder of Fortune International Group in Miami, emphasizes the tangible impact of these brands, not only in terms of premiums but also in accelerating the sales processes. Historically, hotel companies have dominated the development of branded properties, constituting approximately 84% of the sector.

The expertise of hoteliers in the development and management of properties aligns well with the concept of residences as long-term versions of short-stay hotel rooms. Hospitality brands continue to be attracted to real estate, with Peninsula, Aman, and Rosewood making significant strides. Peninsula Residences London, with a reported sale of a penthouse for around $123 million to hedge fund magnate Ken Griffin, showcases the allure of these developments. Aman reported sales of branded residences totaling $2.4 billion in 2022, and Rosewood Residences has expanded its pipeline by over 200% in the last two years. Contributions are also expected from Mandarin Oriental, Six Senses, Equinox, and Faena. However, the shift to branded residences without adjacent hotels is not without challenges, as providing exclusive services and amenities solely for residents can result in higher maintenance costs. The market becomes more intricate for non-hospitality brands venturing into residential development. Companies like Jacob the Jeweler, Nobu, and Casa Tua, originally renowned for their expertise in jewelry, sushi, and Italian cuisine, are becoming lifestyle brands with real estate projects. Miami, a hub for international buyers and a city ranked among the top for branded developments, is experiencing an eclectic boom. Luxury automobile brands like Bentley Residences, Aston Martin Residences, and Porsche Design Tower are making significant strides, offering unique amenities like the futuristic “Dezervator” elevator in the Porsche tower.

Porsche and Aston Martin are targeting their enthusiasts, offering exclusive deals like a limited-edition Aston Martin Vulcan race car with a $59 million penthouse in Miami. As these brands enter the residential development space, they emphasize maintaining the aesthetic and craftsmanship associated with their luxury vehicles. Bentley’s first residential project, scheduled to open in 2026, aligns with the brand’s commitment to sustainable luxury. By 2030, Bentley aims to sell 100% electric cars, targeting a more progressive audience interested in sustainability. In New York, the third-largest market for branded residences globally, Aman exemplifies the trend with ultra-luxury residences, a five-star hotel, and a private club within a beautifully restored Art Deco building. This integrated approach, offering top-end buyers every imaginable indulgence under one roof, indicates a growing desire for security and confidence in markets where wealth is still relatively new.

Source: Robb Report
Photo: Bentley Residences

Anagram Columbus Circle Luxury Rentals: 50% Occupied, Monthly Rents Soar to $26,000

By Columbus International,29 January 2024

A new 26-story luxury rental development in Manhattan, Anagram Columbus Circle, has reached the halfway mark in terms of occupancy just six months after opening for leasing. Situated at 1 W. 60th St., at the intersection of West 60th Street and Broadway, and in close proximity to Central Park, the upscale property boasts monthly rents reaching as high as $26,000. Global Holdings, the developer responsible for other prestigious residential projects in New York such as 15 Central Park West, has reported that Anagram Columbus Circle has drawn residents not only from various parts of the United States but also from overseas.

Leasing commenced in July, with a Global Holdings spokesperson stating to CoStar News that move-ins are currently underway, and all amenities are expected to be fully completed by spring. The rental units at Anagram Columbus Circle range from $4,660 for a studio to $26,750 for a four-bedroom unit, according to the spokesperson. Eyal Ofer, Chairman of Global Holdings, emphasized the sustained demand for premium rentals, citing the success of their previous projects like 15 Central Park West, Greenwich Lane, and 520 Park. The developer’s extensive portfolio spans over 10 million square feet of real estate, encompassing more than 120 properties and over 1,500 hotel rooms.

Anagram Columbus Circle features 123 residences, including three penthouses situated at the top of the building. Designed by INC Architecture & Design, the property is said to offer condo-level design and boasts 13,000 square feet of amenity space. The leasing success of Anagram Columbus Circle coincides with a CoStar analysis indicating a 2.9% vacancy rate in Manhattan’s Upper West Side, where the property is located. This vacancy rate remains near historic lows, making it one of the lowest among U.S. neighborhoods with at least 20,000 units. With asking rents of $4,950 per unit, the Upper West Side market is noted for its high prices within the New York metropolitan area. The low vacancy rate has provided landlords with the opportunity to push rents higher, according to the report.

Photo via Anagram

The Transformation Revolution: Old Offices Turn into New Homes

By Columbus International,24 January 2024

Already in the first weeks of 2024, promoters are undertaking an unprecedented mission to redesign old office buildings into actual residential units, setting a record for the highest number of transformed housing units. This growth is a direct response to the remote and hybrid work revolution that began in 2020, leading to high vacancy rates for commercial spaces in many American cities.

Among the proposals is the idea of alleviating the high costs of housing marked by persistent inflation by creating more supply. Providing an overview is the study conducted by RentCafe, which discovered that 55,300 housing units are undergoing conversion from office buildings, marking a quadruple increase compared to 2021. While the year-on-year growth of 22% is more modest than in previous years, the demand for residential space remains a driving force behind this transformative movement.

Despite challenges such as higher financial costs and extended timelines associated with zoning and permits, industry experts like Doug Ressler, the head of business intelligence at Yardi Matrix (RentCafe’s sister company), assert that this trend is destined to endure. Local governments are incentivizing the conversion of more office buildings as they “remain vacant due to hybrid work and preferences for newer and more efficient office spaces” after the pandemic. In particular, these government initiatives aim to breathe new life into these spaces. In Washington, DC, plans are underway to convert office spaces into 5,820 housing units – a significant increase from the previous year.

Following closely is the New York metropolitan area, with 5,215 new apartments planned from former office spaces. Notably, New York’s growth is fueled by the transformation of 25 Water St. in Manhattan, formerly an outpost of JPMorgan & Chase Co., into 1,263 apartments – the largest project of its kind in the country. Dallas takes the third spot, with 3,163 housing units created from offices, representing 83% of all conversion types, the highest share among major cities.

Unveiling the Pinnacle: Time Out’s Picks for the Finest Global Cities in 2024

By Columbus International,24 January 2024

In the realm of entertainment, where cities often take on the role of the main character in beloved TV shows and movies, and serve as the muse for countless songs and artworks, New York City stands out as an iconic destination. Time Out, a prominent media company, has recognized this by naming New York City as the best city for 2024. Drawing insights from the perspectives of around 20,000 city-dwellers globally, as well as input from its network of writers and editors, Time Out curated a list of the world’s best cities.

Criteria such as the culinary scene, architectural marvels, and cultural vibrancy played a crucial role in the evaluation. Time Out aims not only to inspire travel but also to offer a global snapshot of city living. New York City secured the top spot, with its plethora of museums and a thriving theater scene being highlighted as contributing factors. The city’s international reputation also played a significant role, as it was deemed the most desirable location for relocation by city-dwellers worldwide. Claiming the second position on Time Out’s list is Cape Town, South Africa, a city described unanimously by survey respondents as “beautiful.” Its enchanting blend of sea, cityscape, and majestic mountains contributes to its allure. Time Out commended Cape Town for its rich cultural offerings, including late-night museum events, theater, comedy shows at Theatre on the Bay, and the newly opened Time Out Market Cape Town. Despite the accolades, Katy Scott, a Cape Town native now residing in France, emphasizes the city’s contrasts. While praising its unpretentious coastal charm, Scott acknowledges that many of its attractions may not be accessible to the majority of citizens due to persistent inequality.

To gain a deeper understanding of the city and its people, Scott recommends venturing beyond the tourist bubble and exploring sites like Robben Island and the District Six museum, both endorsed by Time Out for their engagement with South Africa’s apartheid history. Time Out’s top five cities also include Berlin, Germany (celebrated for its vibrant nightlife), London, UK (recognized for legendary pubs and free museums), and Madrid, Spain (applauded for exceptional dining and drinking experiences). Notable smaller cities in the top 10 include Liverpool, UK (ranked 7th), and Porto, Portugal (ranked 10th), the latter being lauded for its romantic ambiance according to survey respondents. Grace Beard, Time Out’s travel editor, highlighted the common thread among all the cities on the list—a strong community spirit and an undeniable vibe.

Challenges and Hope: The Roller Coaster Ride of US Home Sales in 2023

By Columbus International,23 January 2024

In 2023, the US housing market faced significant headwinds, resulting in a nearly 30-year low in previously occupied home sales. Rising mortgage rates, soaring prices, and limited inventory created a challenging landscape for prospective homeowners. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales plummeted to 4.09 million last year, marking an 18.7% decline from 2022. This represents the weakest year for home sales since 1995 and the most substantial annual drop since the housing slump of 2007. The median national home price reached a record high of $389,800, experiencing a modest uptick of just under 1% for the entire year, as reported by the NAR. The surge in mortgage rates in 2023, reaching a two-decade high of 7.08% in late October, added to the challenges.

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and control inflation contributed to this increase. High borrowing costs, coupled with already soaring home prices, constrained the purchasing power of potential homebuyers. However, there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Mortgage rates have been easing since November, aligning with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield. The optimism stems from the belief that inflation has subsided enough for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates this year. As of this week, the average rate on a 30-year home loan stands at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. Economists anticipate further rate easing, which could boost demand as the spring homebuying season approaches in late February. Despite the positive outlook, the current average rate remains significantly higher than two years ago when it stood at 3.56%. This substantial gap has contributed to a limited supply of previously occupied homes on the market, as homeowners with rock-bottom rates hesitate to sell. In December, existing home sales declined by 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million—the slowest pace since August 2010, according to the NAR. December’s sales fell by 6.2% from a year earlier, missing economists’ expectations. Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, remains cautiously optimistic, stating, “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.” While challenges persist, there is anticipation for a positive shift in the housing market as we step into the new year.

Source: New York Post

Resurgence in Big Apple Retail: A Beacon of Hope Amidst Economic Challenges

By Columbus International,23 January 2024

In the face of the pandemic’s challenges, New York City’s retail sector has not only weathered the storm but has emerged stronger than ever. Unlike many other segments of the city’s commercial market, retail has experienced a remarkable resurgence, with owners seizing opportunities to lease prime spaces at reduced rates and shorter terms, triggering a notable revival. Gene Spiegelman of Ripco remarked, “We’ve seen a fairly healthy amount of recovery, with rents down by an impressive 50%.” This decline in rental costs has sparked a feeding frenzy for well-located spaces, particularly benefiting vacant restaurants and luxury fashion fronts. A noteworthy transaction in this revitalized landscape is Dolce & Gabbana securing the unique former Hermès store at 695 Madison Ave. Similarly, Prada made a significant investment, paying $835 million to retail tycoon Jeff Sutton for a building at 724 Fifth Ave., along with the adjacent structure at 720 Fifth Ave., formerly dominated by Abercrombie & Fitch. Jeff Sutton had initially planned a slender new tower in the area next to the Aman Hotel in the Crown Building. However, it remains uncertain whether this development will proceed as originally envisioned.

The positive momentum in the retail sector is further complemented by favorable changes in mortgage rates. Since November, mortgage rates have been on a downward trend, aligning with a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield—a crucial factor influencing loan pricing. The easing of these rates reflects optimism that inflation has cooled sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts later this year. Currently, the average rate on a 30-year home loan stands at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. While this rate is lower than in previous weeks, it remains significantly higher than the 3.56% recorded just two years ago. This disparity has contributed to a limited inventory of previously occupied homes on the market, dissuading homeowners from selling due to the contrast in interest rates. Despite the easing of mortgage rates, existing home sales experienced a 1% decline in December compared to the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million—the slowest sales pace since August 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales for December fell by 6.2% from the previous year, falling short of economists’ expectations. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, expressed optimism, stating, “The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.” In the midst of economic uncertainties, the resilience and resurgence of the Big Apple’s retail sector stand as a beacon of hope, signaling potential positive shifts in the real estate landscape as the new year unfolds.

The Castles of Gaiole in Chianti and San Donato in Perano: Stories of History, Wine and Real Estate

By Columbus International,22 January 2024

Gaiole in Chianti, in the heart of the province of Siena, continues to be the stage for an epic narrative involving two castles steeped in history, noble houses, and winemaking traditions. While the Castle of Gaiole still seeks its guardian, another fortress, the Castle of San Donato in Perano, awaits a new chapter in its millennia-long story. San Donato in Perano is a fortress that speaks of centuries-old battles and nobility, of hills holding secrets between heaven and earth, and of wine flowing like vital blood through the history of Chianti. Despite its medieval charm, the fortress has failed to find buyers in past auctions, including the one in 2017.

Now, it prepares for a new sales attempt on April 8th, with a starting bid of 3.2 million euros. San Donato in Perano is not merely a testament of stone and history; it was the pulsating heart of Chianti Classico production. However, the crisis severely impacted the industrious agricultural estate of the Strozzi family, leading to the sale of its viticultural part, now owned by Frescobaldi. Despite the castle retaining its majesty amidst the gentle hills of Siena, the absence of its vineyards seems to have compromised its appeal in the eyes of investors.

The castle, with its vastness encompassing villas, residences, and chapels with ancient souls, seeks to allure distinguished buyers with a collection of precious furnishings and historical machinery. However, without its vineyards, the castle risks losing part of its allure, failing to engage those who seek not only history but also profitability. The future of San Donato in Perano hangs in limbo, and speculations about its transformation are diverse. Some dream of seeing it turned into an exclusive resort, while others hope for a patron who can enhance its history.

Enthusiasts of culture and historical heritage hold their breath, hoping that this castle does not become yet another forgotten beauty. While awaiting that spring auction, Chianti looks at its castles with a mix of nostalgia and hope. It is wished that someone can recognize in them not just real estate but true pieces of Italian history to preserve and cherish for future generations.

Chef Bottura Brings Culinary Masterpiece to Miami with the Opening of Torno Subito

By Columbus International,18 January 202418 January 2024

Chef Massimo Bottura and his wife Lara Gilmore know how to blend real estate and taste, given the imminent opening of their restaurant. It’s called Torno Subito and will be located on the rooftop of Julia & Henry’s in Miami. The opening is scheduled for 2024. We are still awaiting the completion of construction at the historic building located at 200 E. Flagler St. This establishment will add vibrant colors and classic Italian cuisine to the renowned Julia & Henry’s, a gourmet food hall and seven-story entertainment complex. In a recent interview with New Times, the couple, known for their acclaimed three-Michelin-star restaurant, Osteria Francescana in Modena, Italy, shared details about their culinary journey.

They were in Miami to promote their third collaborative book, “Slow Food, Fast Cars: Casa Maria Luigia – Stories and Recipes,” published by Phaidon. Osteria Francescana has been ranked first on the World’s 50 Best Restaurants list twice and is currently part of the Best of the Best list. The couple has also made a mark through collaborations with prestigious brands such as Gucci and Ferrari. In 2019, they opened Casa Maria Luigia, a hotel villa near Modena, and their latest book narrates its stories, provides regional recipes, and explores the inspirations behind their creative projects.

Torno Subito originated in Dubai in 2018, filling a void in the city’s culinary scene. The concept bridges the gap between contemporary fine-dining Italian restaurants and rustic pizzerias, infusing the atmosphere with the vibrant and colorful elements of 1960s Dolce Vita and Italian design. Miami became the chosen location for Torno Subito as investors, captivated by the Dubai restaurant, believed it was an ideal fit for South Florida. Lara Gilmore emphasizes the readiness of the space, filled with color and life, as the original chef from Dubai, Bernardo Paladino, works on refining the recipe concept in Miami. Massimo Bottura’s inspiration for Torno Subito draws from his childhood spent in Rimini, the hometown of acclaimed Italian director Federico Fellini.

Fond memories of summer by the seaside with family serve as the foundation for creating joyful experiences through the restaurant. Torno Subito in Miami will stand out with its focus on authentic Italian dishes prepared in a wood-burning oven, echoing the culinary style of their Italian guesthouse, Casa Maria Luigia.

The menu, featured in “Slow Food, Fast Cars,” showcases specialties unique to the Emilia-Romagna region, ranging from roasted vegetables to baked ricotta and warm focaccia. The book also captures the essence of Casa Maria Luigia, a 12-room villa, highlighting its distinctive features such as cuisine, contemporary art, interior design, music, and the presence of cars and motorcycles. The villa is available for rent as a whole or as individual rooms, offering guests a glimpse into the charm and allure of this idyllic retreat.

Source: New Times

Global Real Estate Markets in Flux: New York and Milan Buck the Trend

By Columbus International,17 January 2024

The latest edition of the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index reveals a significant shift in housing market imbalances across major cities worldwide. According to the report, only Zurich and Tokyo retain their status as being at risk of a housing bubble, marking a substantial improvement from the previous year’s nine cities in this category.

Notably, New York and Milan stand out as cities that have experienced positive adjustments, moving towards fair valuation. The overall trend indicates a decline in housing market imbalances, attributed to the impact of global inflation and rising interest rates over the past two years. On average, real house prices in 25 major cities fell by 5% from mid-2022 to mid-2023. Despite this correction, the report suggests the possibility of further downside in prices. New York, along with Boston, San Francisco, and Madrid, has witnessed a drop in imbalances, leading to a classification of being fairly valued. Similarly, Milan, São Paulo, and Warsaw have also achieved fair valuation status. This transformation is noteworthy as it signals a departure from the bubble risk category and indicates a stabilizing real estate market.

The decline in house price growth is attributed to the substantial increase in financing costs, with average mortgage rates nearly tripling since 2021 in most markets. Annual nominal price growth in the analyzed cities stalled after a 10% rise in the previous year. In real terms, prices are now 5% lower than in mid-2022, erasing most gains made during the pandemic. The sharp drop in housing market imbalances is not solely due to falling prices but is also influenced by inflation-driven income and rental growth.

Mortgage lending growth has halved since mid-2022, leading to a decline in household debt to income, particularly in Europe. However, despite these positive shifts, the affordability of living space remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. Some cities are already witnessing the seeds of the next property price boom. Hybrid working has not significantly weakened demand for city living, and a housing shortage is anticipated as fewer building permits have been issued, especially in European urban centers. In the Americas, while Miami and New York show varying trends, New York’s housing market is on a strong comeback, with a 3% increase in real prices between mid-2022 and mid-2023. Conversely, Boston’s housing market dynamics have weakened. In Europe, Milan stands out with a 2% drop in real prices, attributed to local rental and income growth, but with solid economic prospects.